Risk and Reward

Warhammer 40,000 is, largely, a game about risk management. Whenever you do something, you take a chance. On the one hand, you might succeed – on the other hand, you might fail. Chance is a fickle thing, and no matter HOW much probability study you put into it, at the end of the day, you still have to roll those dice. Sure, 91 times out of 100 you’ll succeed – but there’ll still be those 9 times that you’ll fail. This roll, this crucial roll, may be one of those times.

Then again, it may not.

The point is; you truly don’t know until you try.

Some people will claim that this completely dismisses any argument for probability studies. They say that you can’t arm-chair general a game and know from the numbers what the outcome will be. But that isn’t quite fair either – as you do know that, most of the time, a certain situation will yield a certain result. Usually, when a squad of 10 Orks charges a squad of 10 Marines, the Orks will win. If I can assume that the Orks do get into combat, at roughly that level of strength, I can assume the outcome.

But this only works for the short-run, only for stuff that’s happening, effectively, “right now”.

And “right now” for me was a decision I faced in a recent game against the Imperial Guard. (for the record, I tied the game)

Hopeless odds – a 5-man Sternguard Squad with a Chaplin, an empty Razorback with twin-link Lascannon, an Immobilized Rhino, and a Force Commander who already used up his Orbital Strike. A total of 9 models, worth roughly 500 points – most of it in 2 models.

At the board edge, a corner of the table, are 3 Armoured Fist squads in their Chimeras, one squad of an Infantry Platoon, and a Leman Russ Demolisher. I had, rather ineffectually the turn before, merely forced one Chimera and its payload to not be able to shoot this turn.

Being pinned in placed, and with time rapidly running out where the Imperial Guard could try to steal my objective in an attempt to win the game, the Guard had to move up the table – and the easiest and safest route… Tank-Shocking through my Sternguard Veterans.

Being accompanied by the Chaplin, they automatically passed their Ld test, and I had an option. I could get out of the way, or I could attempt a Death or Glory attack with my weakly S6 Krak Grenade against the fiendishly resilient Armour 12 of the Chimera. At the end of the game, we both agreed that this decision was the most important one of the game.

Most of a game of Warhammer 40,000 can be played rather simply. Unit 1 engages unit 2 because unit 1 has an excellent chance of defeating unit 2. Unit 3 could spend a turn shooting, but since it doesn’t have a very good chance of doing anything, it runs to get to a better position instead. Often at least once in a game though, you’ll be presented with a difficult decision – take the safe route that will keep you in an okay position regardless of the outcome, or take the chance that, while slim, may change everything.

I’ve mentioned the term “impact” briefly in the past. Impact, I said, is how much a certain action’s consequences will affect the game.

For example, you have an option to shoot at an enemy Heavy Support, or an enemy Troop. If it’s the beginning of the game, you’ll probably be shooting the Heavy Support. If it’s the end of the game, you’ll probably be shooting the Troop. Why? Because at the beginning of the game, removing your opponent’s Heavy Support will reduce the amount of damage that army can deal to you, whereas at the end of the game, when the Heavy Support may only be able to shoot at you once more, stopping your opponent’s troops from capturing objectives or contesting them will ensure your overall victory.

In this sense, at the beginning of the game, shooting the Heavy Support will have higher Impact, whereas shooting the Troops will have immensely higher Impact at the end of the game.

Unfortunately, as of yet, I can’t tell you a sure-fire way to determine Impact – it’s just not quantifiable. Judging points-value to points-value is a good start, but ultimately it will be the unique situation that you find yourself in that will determine the answer.

Instead, let me present you with a simple scale. Judging things by this scale can help put things into perspective so that you can make the best decision possible.

IMPACT:

1 – Very low Impact. Taking this option will result in almost no change to the game and won’t force your opponent to do things any differently.

Ex. Having a lascannon kill a single model in an opposing squad of Troops that are at full-strength, and the Troops are not being overly threatening.

2 – Low Impact. This option will marginally reduce your opponent’s strength, but not their options. In the end, your opponent’s impact against you is largely untouched, but their odds of successfully impacting you are reduced.

Ex. Shooting an Ordnance round into a 3-man squad of Devastators, the Devastators are in heavy cover (4+ cover save), and it’s Turn 4.

3 – Medium Impact. This option will either significantly reduce your opponent’s strength, or will marginally reduce their strength but will also reduce their options.

Ex. Attempting to destroy a transport that’s 1 move away from assaulting your valuable units. Chances are the unit will lose some strength, not too much, but will force your opponent to slug their way across the table, slowing them down and forcing their hand.

OR

Ex. Attempting to annihilate a Troop squad in the early game by either destroying them completely, or bringing them under 50% strength and trying to get them to fail a Ld test.

4 – High Impact. This option will almost definitely annihilate an opposing unit, and/or will put you more in control of the game by removing some of your opponent’s options. Your opponent will feel hurt after this.

Ex. Destroying your enemy’s HQ. Stopping their Troops from claiming an objective right at the end of the game. Taking out multiple units with a well-placed charge. These are all good ways to cause no end of grief for your opponents.

5 – Game-Changing Impact. This option, if successful, will change the face of the game. Not only will it destroy something that’s bugging you, but it will throw a wrench into everything that your opponent is trying to do. If you can achieve this level of impact at the beginning of the game, the game is almost as good as won.

Ex. Destroying a Tyranid player’s only Synapse creature within range of most of their army. Taking out the crucial Necron Monolith at the beginning of the game, preventing the Necron Army from gaining access to multiple “We’ll Be Back” saves. Causing your opponent’s only 2 Troop units to fall back off the table, preventing them from ever winning the game.

Preferably you want to be achieving as high Impact as possible as much of the time as possible. However, it’s not that simple – you still have that pesky problem named “chance”. Even if every Lascannon on the table turns its sights on the Monolith on turn 1, you still probably won’t take it out, and glancing it does almost nothing (1 in 6 chance of Immobilization, every other roll is effectively pointless against the Monolith).

Enemy Hive Tyrants have lots of wounds, and are often guarded by yet more gribbly creatures to absorb the blows.

Lots of Troops at the beginning of the game will be in range of Ld-modifying bonuses, or won’t even be close enough to the table edge to force them out of the game even early on.

The point is low Impact actions are often easier to achieve than high Impact actions.

And there you have your basics of risk;

High % chance that you can weakly influence your opponent.

Low % chance that you can massively influence your opponent.

If you attempt the low impact action, even if you fail, your failure won’t lie heavily on you. If you attempt a high impact action though, if you fail the consequences can be pretty bad.

So, at what point is the risk worth the potential reward?

This is what was going through my mind during the game. I had a choice – I could move clear of the tank-shocking vehicle. If I did, my opponent would have free rein of the board. They wouldn’t outright destroy my units, but they could do a lot of damage and I’d have to scramble to deal with the approaching forces.

Or, I could Death or Glory with a S6 Krak Grenade against Armour 12. I knew I would automatically hit, thanks to the Death or Glory special rules, but those same rules would force me to hit the front armour – not the back. So a 1 in 6 chance of even just a glancing hit.

Even if I got that hit, I would still need to roll either a 4 OR a 6 to stop it (a result of 5 would merely result in a destroyed weapon and the tank would continue rumbling forward).

Total % chance of success – not good (that’s all I needed to know – checking the math now, I see that I had a 5.6% chance actually – or 1 in 18).

If I failed, which was likely, I would not only have done nothing, but additionally LOST a 25 point model of a very effective squad, setting me even further behind than if I just took the safe route and stepped around the vehicle.

But if I succeeded…

Then my opponent would be boxed in. From the position I was in, if it succeeded, my Sternguard would be protected from most shooting for the turn. Furthermore, my enemy would have to bring their Chimera’s often difficult terrain to move forward. Anyone who plays with or against Mechanized Imperial Guard will know that Chimera Congestion is a problem that even “Reactin” won’t solve.

I probably spent a full 2 minutes judging what to do. In the end, I figured that it was worth the risk, and I took the option. And what do you know? Today just happened to be that 1 time after 17 failures that I succeeded.

The effect was pretty devastating to my opponent. I would rate it a 4 on the Impact scale, maybe 4.5. It wasn’t game-winning, but it certainly was game-changing. I didn’t deal a lot of damage, but in one move I had boxed my opponent in, giving my vastly inferior force (9 models remember) a chance against some 44 models (40 Guardsmen, some with special or heavy weapons, 3 Chimeras, and a Leman Russ Exterminator).

I didn’t destroy all my opponent’s forces in that area, but I stopped all by 1 Chimera and its squad of Guardsmen from reaching the objective, and then the Chaplin (still alive) proceeded to annihilate them. By keeping my opponent off my objective, I was able to turn a losing game in a draw.

How would things have turned out if they happened differently? I can only guess that the Sternguard would have faced a quicky, flamer-filled death, followed by the Chaplin bitting the dust from multiple lascannons to the face, and then having to use what was left of my Troops to fight off some 30 Guardsmen and tank. But… we’ll never know now.

So, try to judge your risk and rewards. It’s not always the right choice to take the safe route – sometimes you have to throw caution to the wind, because IF you succeed, the impact of that action will change everything.