USB Escapism

Well, once again I’m missing my USB stick. That little bugger just keeps escaping me. So, I’ll have to present you with something off the cuff.

Today, I’m going to talk about Magic: The Gathering, and how you can relate it to Warhammer 40,000. Why Magic? Because, after picking up Magic Online (a digital version of the game – pretty much just an interface for playing the game), I’ve had many more chances to play Magic than Warhammer.

Overall, in fact, it’s much easier to become “good” at Magic than it is to become “good” at Warhammer. This has nothing to do with the game’s complexity or difficulty though. The big reason is the fact that you do get more chances to play Magic than Warhammer. In Magic, you can play a match in as short a time-span as 5 minutes, although a common length for the game would be 10 or 15 minutes. Warhammer, on the other hand, takes a good 2 and a half hours even for a straight-up, 1-on-1, 1500 point match. You need to set up terrain, place armies, go through 5 or 6 turns of back and forth action/reaction, and your tactical decisions take longer to execute.

So, in the time that it takes you to have 1 battle, you could probably have played 10 games of Magic. You’ll learn a lot more about how Magic works from those 10 games than you will from that 1 game.

But, regardless of the differences, Magic and Warhammer are built on very similar concepts. In both you have a pre-determined pool of resources that you choose to play with. In Warhammer this is your army list, and in Magic this is your deck list. You both play a game, trying to maximize your use of limited resources. Warhammer is much more a game of controlled loses, as your army tends to be diminished, whereas Magic is more about gaining and growing your power-base in order to have a superior lead over your opponent (although games can be won without doing this; see “Red Deck Wins” philosophies about trying to win before you run out of gas).

In the end, every game in the world comes down to a similar basic resource – time. In Warhammer, think of everything you could do if you could take 2 turns in a row – think of how destructive that would be for your enemy. In Magic, you literally can take an extra turn with cards like (((Time Warp))). Even games like Monopoly or Chess have a basis of gaining ground on your opponent – using moves, cards, or actions to make your moves count for more and making your opponent’s count for less, effectively gaining fractions of a turn on your opponents.

In Magic, gaining a turn on your opponent is much easier – and not just because of cards like Time Warp. The crux of the matter comes down to what does it mean to gain a turn? Magic theory states this as laying down an extra land (bypassing the one-land a turn rule), or drawing extra cards (bypassing the one-card drawn per turn rule). There are some other ways (like having extra Upkeeps (Paradox Haze), Attack Phases (Relentless Assault), etc.) but they’re much, much more rare.

So, if you can do things like return a land to their hand (Boomerang), you can “gain” a turn on your opponent. If you destroy multiple creatures with a single card (Consume the Meek), you “gain” a turn on your opponent. If you cast a spell that does a lot of different things (Cruel Ultimatum), you “gain a turn” (or in this case, multiple turns) on your opponent.

Warhammer, meanwhile, is a lot more difficult for gaining ground on your opponent. There are no special abilities that give a whole extra turn, nothing that stops your opponent from moving their entire army, and zilch that can call in an extra unit to appear in the game.

Instead, you have to rely on tactics and strategy to gain ground. Every turn that you merely Stun an enemy vehicle, you gain ground as the vehicle is effectively destroyed for one more turn. Every time you force your opponent through difficult terrain, you slow them down, giving you more time to get into a better position or send another volley of Pulse Rifles into their ranks. Every time you make an assault with the intention of preventing them from moving on their next turn, you take ground away from them.

In Warhammer this is called “controlling the flow of the game”. Are you the one who is dictating what happens in the game, or is your opponent dictating what happens? In short, if you’re controlling it, then you’re likely winning. If your opponent is controlling it, then you’re likely losing.

Take this situation; you have a Seer Council and are facing up against Grey Knights. You really want to get your Seer Council into combat with their Terminators. It’s your best chance at slowing them down if you can get a “Doom” psychic power off on them. However, there’s a Land Raider nearby that will just take apart your army if you let it live, and only your Seer Council is in a position to tackle it.

In a sense, at this point, you may think that you’re in control. You have your choice of targets, and can go for the best chance-to-profit move (attacking the Land Raider). But really, you’re probably out of control. In the time it takes you to attack the Land Raider, the Terminators will have moved away from you, meaning that to attack them back again will take twice as much effort as it did before. The same goes for the Land Raider. Yes you have a choice, but neither of them are good.

Overall, it’s easier for a close-combat style army to control the flow of the game than it is for the shooting army. Shooting armies get a bonus at the start of the game through army placement, but once on the table they’ll be stuck in their initial deployments – while the close combat army still has lots of options for taking you apart.

When the game is between two shooting armies, placement is even more important – as shooting and destroying one unit can allow you to gain ground on your opponent as they can’t fire back.

Things are most complicated when the game is between two close combat armies. It’s all too easy for the game to collapse into one grand melee somewhere on the table – with forces pilling in on all sides. If it looks like this is about to happen, carefully judge the strength of all units that likely will get involved. The winner of the grand melee often wins the game. Remember a backup plan should your forces fail. If it looks like your opponent has the advantage, turn tail and run for cover and reinforcements. You may be giving some ground to your opponent, but you can gain a lot of it back by deciding where and when the grand melee takes place.

And now, you're moment of Zen...

Snazzgunz: Relentless, Eternal Warrior, Furious Charge

Universal Special Rules. They simply sound terrifying. They’re Universal (big), they’re Special (awesome), and they’re a Rule (ticketable offense).

In Snazzgunz, I’ll be looking over the special rules that are ever-present throughout Warhammer 40,000. From the Universal Special Rules, to the Eldar Jetbikes special rules, to Tyranid special rules (wow there’s a lot there).

It’s interesting to look at the framework of Warhammer 40,000. Everywhere in the game we are presented with rules. Really, though, the game just has a few basics:

Infantry move 6”, assault 6”, you roll twice to see if you might deal damage to your opponent, and they roll once to see if they’re okay. That’s it. So in many ways, Warhammer 40,000 is a game about BREAKING the rules. Yes Infantry move 6”… but Infantry with Jump Packs move 12”! Yes you roll twice to see if you deal damage… but if you’re twin-linked you get to reroll some dice! Yes they get to roll to see if they’re okay… but NOT if you dealt the wound with a Power Weapon.

Universal Special Rules are rules that are likely to be found in multiple armies. The most common is the Invulnerable Save. It breaks the rule that, even when you don’t get a save, you still get a save (Boss Klopz: “Da metal skelliez don’t count!”).

Presented here are 3 other Special Rules that you’ll often run into. Maybe not all the time (these rules are usually found on Elite, HQ, or Heavy Support units), but you’ll still run into them quite often.

Relentless

The first is the Relentless Rule. This easy-to-learn rule allows a model to move, fire any weapons, and still assault. Most commonly you will encounter this rule when fighting Space Marines (all Terminator models gain this rule), or Tyranids (their Monstrous Creatures have this rule).

Relentless units are often all-round good Spearhead units. A Hive Tyrant is a powerful foe, but it remains deadly throughout the game largely due to the fact that every turn it’s on the table, it can cause some serious damage. In close combat, the Tyrant is a beast of Epic Proportions that even few Assault units can stand up to. At a range, the Tyrant can also be a menace, killing scores of light infantry, or punishing light vehicles. And every single turn, the Tyrant is moving towards its objective or enemy.

In this way, Relentless is a special Movement rule, since that is where it has its greatest impact. It allows units to keep moving, even if they would normally have to stand still. When using a Relentless unit, keep it on the move – either moving to a more advantageous position, moving to cover, moving to assault, or moving to the objective.

When facing a Relentless unit, try to control where the unit will move. The best direction is probably AWAY from you. As a Spearhead unit, if you break the spear’s tip, the rest can be blunted. Relentless units are often slow – so if they spend 1 turn going the opposite direction, they’ll need a whole 2^nd turn just to end back where they started… and since a game will likely only last 6 turns, you’ve just dealt with a deadly unit for 1/3^rd of the game.

Eternal Warrior

This uncommon special rule is most often found on HQ units, but also entirely throughout the Daemons codex. This rule makes you immune to the dreaded Instant Death clause. You may not see many Eternal Warriors out there, but it’s important to remember this rule when you do. The greatest players, sports stars, and chess champions in the world do as well as they do because they can exploit an opponent’s mistake.

Don’t be one of those people that make this mistake!

When you go into combat against an enemy, and you plan to take them out with a decisive Power Fist, Force Weapon, or similar attack – remember to consider Eternal Warrior. Instant Death does not come up often, but there are many armies that focus on using their Instant-Death causing characters/units to take out opposing characters. If that character turns out to have Eternal Warrior, then the attack falls flat.

By the same token, you can use your Eternal Warriors offensively in this matter, by pitting them against some of the deadliest enemies in the game and still expect to see them walk out of the fight alive.

Furious Charge

This is the real meat and potatoes I wanted to get at. This Universal Special Rule has been getting more spotlights recently from Games Workshop, mostly because every single Ork boy has it – and it is nothing to laugh at! At +1S and +1 Initiative, Furious Charge can make any assault-orientated unit doubly, or triply effective on the charge.

Nothing pisses off an Eldar Wraithlord more than when it gets charged by a Blood Angel Librarian with Furious Charge and a Force Weapon. They think they have it made, but then they realize that the Librarian only needs to do 1 wound to completely annihilate their Wraithlord. This would not be possible without Furious Charge.

It’s important to remember that Furious Charge takes effect after all other modifiers. So Ork Nobz with Power Klawz that charge are S9, not S10.

It’s often easy to forget the impact of Furious Charge. In Warhammer 40,000 we tend to think of Attacks and AP as the two biggest influencers of a weapon/model’s ability. However, Strength is probably the most important attribute after Toughness to a model. Toughness 4 is barely touched by S3 attacks (5+), able to shrug off S4 attacks (4+), vulnerable to S5 (3+) and akin to tissue paper at S6 (2+). No matter where you stand along the S3 to S5 curve, receiving +1 to your strength increases your unit’s deadliness.

That means a unit that hits on 4’s experiences a 33% increase in the number of wounds it would likely score if its attacks have the bonus from Furious Charge.

(Units that hit on 3’s experience only a 25% increase… still very sizable)

That’s like adding 3 extra models to a 9-man squad.

But you also have to remember the Initiative difference. That +1I can give you a further edge. Striking first in combat is a huge advantage, as you get to strike at full power, and your opponent will only strike back with whatever’s left (if there is even anything left).

When using Furious Charge, try to take advantage of it as often as possible. ALWAYS remember to use Hit & Run units where possible to regain the attack, initiative, and strength advantages of charging.

When fighting against units with Furious Charge, try to minimize its effects. Orks are most dangerous on the charge – so if they’re going to get to you the turn after they leave close combat, charge them instead! Deny them that advantage. Being stuck in the same combat turn after turn is the last thing units with Furious Charge want.

Always remember the impact that this can make on other rules as well. An Ork Warboss with a Big Choppa already receives a +2 bonus to Strength on top of S5. When that Furious Charge is added in, this brings the Boss up to S8 – often enough to deal Instant-Killing blows to HQs, and ruination to vehicles.

Starcraft 2 Stuff

Well, I don’t have a Warhammer article for you today… my USB stick is somewhere else. I promise, as soon as I can I will upload the next Warhammer tactics blog.

However, in the meantime, I’ll share some of my other obsessions with you.

Starcraft 2 is awesome.

I’m really happy I pre-ordered the game, as you receive a Beta key when you do (good marketing). I’ve been busy this last week playing matches against others just like me. And when I say “just like me”, I mean it! Most other players out there are just as bad.

Okay, that’s not true – but what IS true is that Starcraft 2’s match-making system works like a charm. The game has a system that matches you up against opponents who will be right about your skill level. In this way, you’re never facing anyone too much better or worse than you are.

Let me bring you through my intro games so far, letting you know of my discovery of the game through them:

Match 1: Zerg vs Zerg: Victory!

First game ever. It’s suggested you start in the Novice Leagues. The Novice Leagues are LIKE real-play, with some differences. First, the maps are modified to slow down aggressive players. You’ll need to pound through 6000 hp worth of destructible rocks before you can hit either your opponent’s base or even their first natural expansion.

In this match, we both powered out as many zerglings and “roaches” as we could. Roaches are sort of the new Hydralisk (despite the Hydralisk still existing). They take up the same tech-position, but cannot hit air units with their ranged attack. They do, however, possess a remarkable healing factor – but this only applies when burrowed (which is researchable only at Tier 2, the Lair).

Match 2: Terran vs Terran: Victory!

I completely eschew the ground in favour of running my tech up to Starports. Terran air-power is second only to Protoss (very balanced, actually). I learn that Terran add-ons are essential. Taking the Tech Lab for the Starport allows for some really amazing units (Banshee, and their new Science Vessel), but taking the Reactor for mass-producing Vikings (an effective anti-air unit with anti-ground capabilities as well) really is the way to go with Terrans if you have access to enough resources.

Match 3: Protoss vs Protoss: Defeat :-(

Every race in Starcraft 2 is incredibly different from every other one. I highly suggest playing at least 1 game as each rather in the Novice Leagues just to get familiar with the way each race builds. The Protoss are even MORE “Protoss”-y. Like before the Probes can set up a work order and then go do something more important (like harvesting minerals), but the new ability of the Nexus can NOT be forgotten (which is difficult, since you’re so busy in Starcraft 2). The Nexus can increase the build-speed of any building (factory or research) by 50%. Big difference in the long-match, as it can increase your Probe count early, and help power units out the Stargate, or speed you through tech upgrades when you really need them.

My opponent here powered out more stuff than myself, and I was taken down easily.

Match 4: Protoss vs Protoss: Victory!

Discovered the awesome power of the Void Ray. I think this unit’s going to be retweaked before the game is released. At the moment, players have access to them too soon – as soon as they build a Stargate they can build these Tier 3 Siege units. 2 or 3 of these beasts are okay, but as soon as you get 4 or more, they always will power up to max-damage (their damage has 3 outputs, increasing from 1 to 3 the longer they’re firing, very devastating considering that once fully-powered, they stay powered as long as there’s little down-time between switching targets).

The game ends with a race to destroy each other’s final building first – with my Void Rays demolishing everything at lightning speed while his invisible Dark Templar go uncountered.

Match 5: Terran vs Protoss: Victory!

My Protoss opponent attempts to rush me with Carriers, and nearly succeeds. However, I quickly build some Terran Thors (a monstrously large mega-unit with anti-air and anti-ground), and support it Vikings. My opponent never expands, and I win the resource race as his main base starts running out of minerals while I have 3 expansions pulling in their weight.

There’s lots more to tell, it’d take too long. The down and short of it is that now that I’ve played 5 additional games meant to “rank” me into a league, I’ve been put into the Copper League. This league, I believe, is one step up from the Novice Leagues and holds about 100 positions. I currently hold spot # 32, after beating a player higher than me (in the score screen it actually shows who was favoured to win, yeah me!). However, I’m still REALLY low in the league system.

UPDATE:

In the days after writing this article, I played 3 games of Starcraft 2. The first one I lost, and then, on my second try (once again, with Protoss, my worst race as I’ve discovered), I think I stumbled across the secret to playing competitively from a strategic point of view.

As the game currently stands, rushing is the answer. Not necessarily a victorious rush, but just something so jarring to your opponent that it gives you the breathing space to start expanding. My mistake before was being a chronic aggressive expansionist. I would prioritize expanding over everything else. Why? It’s my style. I absolutely love soaking up wealth. Unfortunately, that means I’m not really BUILDING anything.

Often, this meant that I would start expanding before I even had any real groups of units to defend myself with or, more importantly, attack with.

In that second game, though, I played Protoss once again, and this time I focused first on pumping out as many Zealots as early as possible. With the new Protoss build-system, this is frighteningly easy – you don’t even need any vespene gas. You just hold off of using your Chrono-boost on your Nexus so that you can use it almost non-stop on your 2 Gateways. Continue producing Probes at this time – even past the point that you would normally stop. You need maximum income during this period with little investment. Then, once you have about 6 Zealots, you attack. Unless your opponent was also rushing for units, you’ll find yourself dominating your opponent’s 2 or 3 units – and then you can go to town against their workers.

The nice thing about this is that, with maximum income, you’ll still be edging ahead in saved minerals – enough to build a Nexus somewhere else (preferably at the map’s gold fields – mineral fields that are yellowish in colour and provide 10 minerals each trip instead of just 5). Even if your opponent defeats your rush, you’ll be a sizable leg up on them – since you’ll have used that time to continue building, but you’ll now have a greater income potential.

For Terrans:

Same idea, but build Barracks with Reactors. It’s absolutely terrifying to see 4 Marines being produced so quickly. I actually made a mistake in my third game with this in building a Reactor before really getting ahead with the second Barracks. Build BOTH Barracks’ first, then put out a few Marines, then upgrade. Note, you’ll need gas to build a Reactor – but you’ll also need some other bonuses to get a leg up on your opponent. Build an Engineering Bay to start researching both offensive upgrades early. I’d also suggest (though I didn’t in my game, and I think I regretted it) building a third Barracks with a Tech Lab so that you can upgrade your Marines further with Combat Shields and Stimpacks, and also start producing either Reapers or Mauraders, depending on your situation (I’m thinking Mauraders due to their ability to slow down enemies – but Reapers could be useful in cases where you want a back-door into their base to force your opponent to double-back while you advance).

For Zerg:

I have no idea yet. The Zerg’s weakness is also a strength – and they’re the reason I LOVE expanding. To build more units simultaneously (after using the Queen, do NOT forget about her Spawn Creep Tumour ability – Zerg move faster on creep, so it’s important to cover large areas of the map with it) you will NEED a second Hatchery – but this will also go at an expansion point.

So I don’t know what to do yet. You need that second Hatchery, and it should build another Queen right away, but when do you switch from expansion to aggression – I do not know. It may turn out that rushing Roaches and Hydras should be best… but that’s a lot of upgrading before you start attacking. I’ll keep you informed.

Building Your Army List

Boyz before Toyz.

That sentence sums up all that is Ork about an army list. Boyz before Toyz says, “You need a strong presence of troops before you start putting points into more fancy stuff. Ork Boyz are strong infantry, but can be whittled down easily. You need enough of them to not only have an impact late-game, but also to capture objectives.”

That’s a lot of words summed up by Boyz before Toyz.

Army building is one of the most important tasks in the game, and you have to make a load of strategic decisions often before you even know who you’re playing against. As such, a lot of people really stress about their “lists”. Frankly, they’re worried it’s simply not good enough. Players go far and wide to seek approval for their lists. They go to friends, the internet, and tactical articles like this.

What you have to remember first is that no list is perfect. The game is designed and balanced so thoroughly that for every power-list out there, there is at least an equally powerful list somewhere else that also has the added bonus of trouncing the first one.

For example, an army of all tanks with ordnance (like 6 Demolishers in a 1000 point teams match) should be great against another force that takes just a few elite anti-troop killers (like Grey Knights that have eschewed heavy weapons for stronger close combat), but will do very poorly against a huge Ork Troops force backed by some Kustom Force Fields (can’t kill enough boyz, and once they get into close combat, they’re hitting the rear armour).

In my experience, designing an “all-comers” list with some kind of specialization is often the best way to go for a tournament. An all-comers list has a lot of power to it, mostly because so many people undervalue the effectiveness of well-placed Troop choices. The basic troop of almost any force in the game is a powerful unit for very little points – but they simply don’t have the bells and whistles that draw people to the more advanced stuff. As mentioned in a previous article, a Space Marine Tactical Squad is a DEAL for 10 models (offering you 10 tough-as-nails units with a special weapon, heavy weapon, a sergeant for close combat, and the ability to split them into 2 dedicated squads).

However, even with lots of troops, you shouldn’t forget some of those bells and whistles because, in the right environment, they will do amazing stuff. An Assault Squad is useless if it’s engaging a Dreadnaught (assuming the squad has no power fist), but shines brilliantly when assaulting enemy light infantry and ranged specialists. If you take 3 squads of them, you likely won’t see them all performing at their best, since you’ll need them in different spots on the board. If you take just 1 squad, you can set it on a goal right at the start of the game, and it will almost assuredly complete that task. That’s the strength of taking just 1 of something (but you probably want a second one, or another with the same goal that does it a little differently).

If, by some chance, you DO know who you’ll be fighting, or you at least have a good idea of the people/forces that will be playing, don’t be afraid to “meta-game”. Meta-gaming is something I’ll cover in the future. To put it shortly, if you know for a fact that people in your area play with lots of tanks, put in more tank-killers. If you know for a fact that people in your area bring lots of Spearhead units to tournaments in the form of beefed up characters and Monstrous Creatures, bring character and monstrous creature killers.

So, when building an army list, keep in mind each unit’s goal. In general, static units should only ever be given one or two goals, whereas dedicated assault units or very mobile units can be given 3 goals. The only exceptions to this are static units that are truly able to handle 3 different types of goals (an Imperial Guard Leman Russ Battle Tank can contest an objective, and blast light or heavy infantry apart at the same time), or dedicated assault units that are likely to die too swiftly and should never be given more than 1 goal (Tyranid Hormagaunts die too quickly to assign anything other than being disruptive or taking out light infantry, but they do that one task very well).

Here’s a list of goals to consider assigning to your units

• Character & Monstrous Creature Assassination
• CC Anti-Heavy Vehicle (Land Raider, Falcon Grav-Tank, Ork Battlewagon, etc.)
  
• CC Anti-Light Vehicle (Ork Trukk, IG Sentinels, Tau Devilfish, etc.)
  
• Ranged Anti-Heavy Vehicle
• Ranged Anti-Light Vehicle
• CC Anti-Infantry
  
• CC Anti-Heavy Infantry
• Ranged Anti-Infantry
  
• Ranged Anti-Heavy Infantry
  
• Contesting Objectives
  
• Claiming Objectives
  
• Outflanking
  
• Infantry Support
  
• Tank Support
  
• Spearhead (often anti-anything, like a Daemon Prince, but never a Troop)
  
• Disruption

So, for example, consider this small army:

---------------------------------------------

HQ: Ork Big Mek w/Shokk Attack Gun, Heavy Armour, and Cybork Body

Elites: Kommandos w/ 2 Skorchas

Troops: 2x 20 Ork Boyz, w/Shootas and Nob w/Power Klaw and Boss Pole

Fast Attack: Warbuggie w/Twin-linked Rokkit Launcha

----------------------------------------------

This small army probably costs around 500 points, and has 5 units. The Big Mek is designed for Anti-Heavy Infantry and Anti-Light Vehicle. He’s a standalone model that is meant to quickly deal with any major threat first-turn. Some people would call this unit a Spearhead unit, as it “can” deal with anything. However, especially in the case of the Shokk Attack Gun, “can” doesn’t necessarily mean “will”. The most common roll is a S7, AP2 large blast – great for dealing with Heavy Infantry, and able to stand up to a light vehicle – but woefully inadequate for heavy tanks. Even at lower strengths it’s good against heavy infantry, and it’s useful against light vehicles a little over 50% of the time.

The Kommandos are Outflankers, Anti-Infantry, and Anti-Heavy Infantry (thanks to the Skorchas that can also act as Power-Weapons).

The Boyz are for Claiming Objectives and CC Anti-Infantry. Their Power Klaw enables them to do more though, as they could run into almost anything as they make their way to the objective. The Bosspoles will help keep the squads in the fight if their numbers get low.

Finally, the Warbuggie is for Anti-Light Vehicle and Outflanking. It does not have the Outflank special rule, but its speed allows it to engage almost any enemy quickly, and the twin-linked Rokkits help it deal with problem enemies with consistency.

Thus, this army has the following capabilities:

Ranged Anti-Heavy Infantry (x1)

Ranged Anti-Light Vehicle (x2)

CC Anti-Infantry (x3)

Outflanking (x2)

CC Anti-Heavy Infantry (x1)

Notice the curve-pattern. The army has a specialty, close-combat anti-infantry. This is what this army is best at (pretty common for Orks). The army is also somewhat adept at dealing with light-vehicles (like enemy transports), and can get into some advantageous positions with its Outflankers. Finally, the army has the ability to deal with Heavy Infantry, both at range, or up close. For 500 points, that’s a really well-rounded army, with a troop-killing specialty.

However, the army lacks the ability to easily deal with Characters/Monstrous Creatures, Heavy Tanks, a Spearhead unit, and has no way of supporting its troops or vehicle to make them better. These flaws could be exploited by any army in the game, from a Tau Hammerhead, to a Tyranid Carnifex, to a Terminator Assault Squad (okay, I don’t know if you’d see that in a 500 point match).

When you design your army, you’ll also have to choose between a top-down and a bottom-up design. Do you design for a specialty first, then build around that, or do you take the cool stuff you want first, then see what needs to be tweaked after? The above list was top-down, starting with wanting a Big Mek with Shokk Attack Gun and Burna Boyz for some Heavy-Infantry killing power, and then putting in the troops and a Warbuggie to round the list out.

Choosing your army is a very difficult strategic decision, and there’s SO much more that we can go into! Hopefully this helpful hint will aid you in designing winning lists in the future!

Probabilities made Easy

How I Stopped Guessing and Learned to Love the Fraction:

Throughout this Strategy and Tactic’s blog, you’ll see me referencing numbers, percentages, and probabilities. Sitting down typing, I’ll be a lot more tempted to work out the exact probabilities of what you want (or what you don’t want) occurring, and I might even get into some more complex stuff too (like saying “you can be 95% confident that you’ll score between 3 and 5 hits).

However, for most of us involved in the fast-paced games where stuff actually happens, or those of us playing a tournament, you're not going to have the luxury of time and paper or a graphing calculator.

So much of the time I see people discussing probabilities online. They say that a certain event is so exactly probable. Like, a bolter shot fired from a Space Marine Tactical Squad has a 66.6% chance of hitting. If the Marine fires 2 shots, he has a 50% chance that both hit and a 75% chance that at least 1 hit. Etc., etc.

This ISN’T helpful for the majority of people, mostly because it’s too in-depth. A lot of people just want to know if what they want to happen has a favourable chance of happening, or not. Heck, most people don’t even know what a favourable chance is.

So, I’m going to give you a quick and dirty run-down of how to judge your chances on the fly. This method should help you size up your chances within 10 seconds. If it takes longer than this, then you probably don’t have a favourable chance, or you’re dealing with a very complex situation.

Effectively, to do this you are going to break the rules of standard probability calculations. You’re going to wind up with numbers over 100%, which normally is not allowed, you’re going to add when you should multiply, and you’re going to estimate when you should calculate.

Step 1: Know the Odds

Memorize this.

6+ = 16% or 1/6
5+ = 33% or 1/3
4+ = 50% or 1/2
3+ = 66% or 2/3
2+ = 83% or 5/6
1+ = you never have a 1+, but it’s 100%

It’s imperative that you know these numbers or fractions. I put down both, because I like working with fractions (seriously, when you understand fractions and can do them in your head, all of math becomes easier to handle).

Step 2: Add

Any time that you have a chance of doing something, add these together. If I fire two bolter shots from a Space Marine Tactical Squad, I have a 130% chance of hitting with at least one. Or, in other words, often 1 hits, sometimes 2 hit, but rarely will none hit. Why? Well, 100% means that you have a good chance of it happening. It’s not perfect (perfect does not exist in this system) 100% merely means a good chance that at least 1 of what you are trying to determine will happen. 30% means that sometimes, though not often, 1 MORE will hit. Now, you know that there’s a chance that neither shot will hit, but that’s a different chance calculation (specifically, 33% + 33% = 66%, is less than 100%, so not a good chance, but it’s there).

When dealing with larger shots, knowing fractions will help. Say it’s 24 shots. Well, 24 * (2/3) will give you 48/3. Don’t worry if you can’t do that division, you can guess that 3 goes into 48 at least 12 times. That’s quite a bit lower than in reality, but you don’t need to know that it’s exactly 16 times (besides, exact figures are misleading). 12 is a figure you can count on – meaning that you should be able to hit 12 times. You may get more, but it’s unlikely that you’ll get less since you under-estimated.

If you do shoot for exact estimations (like 16 in this case), you will find that 50% of the time you score this or more, and 50% of the time you’ll score this or less. This isn’t a probability study, this is a tactical survey.

Step 3: Determine Best Decision

So you know that you should hit more than 12 times. Will that be enough? At this point you should be able to know (shooting at Gaunts, you’ll kill a good number of them, 7 or 8 probably, shooting at Space Marines, you’ll get maybe 1 or 2… maybe none at all). If not, continue you’re fast calculations.

Guants: 12 * (2/3) = 24/3 = 8, no saves, 8 dead

Space Marines: 12 * (1/2) * (1/3) = 12/2 * (1/3) = 6 * (1/3) = 6/3 = 2 dead

What will this accomplish? Will the Gaunts be neutered? Will the Space Marines be forced to make a Ld test? Will this even the odds in Assault? That tactical decision will still be up to you, but you are now armed with info that can be compared to other information and your strategy in order to determine the best choice.

Remember, however, that this system is for BASICS only. Things get MUCH more complicated than this, but your understanding of this basic concept is rather critical. You need to know this math in order to make statistically good decisions. Just remember, for best comparisons, guess on the low side. This game involves a strong element of chance. Sometimes, even a statistically favourable event will go catastrophically wrong.

For example, one time I had a squad of genestealers assault a Land Raider back when Rending gave you an extra D6 (not an extra D3). By all probability, the Land Raider should have been toast – but it didn’t, and its hurricane bolters then proceeded to munch apart my Genestealers – a devastating blow to my army (I was already getting low on units that could deal death-blows to my enemy).

A Note on Unfavourable Situations:

Sometimes an event is unfavourable, but you should take it anyways. A great example of this is when shooting at tanks. Technically speaking, a single Lascannon has a poor chance of killing any vehicle, simply because over half of the Vehicle Damage table gives a result that is NOT destroyed. Even the dreaded Tau Railgun has a less than 50% chance of destroying even an Armour 10 vehicle (1/2 to hit, 1/2 to destroy… remember that being AP1 gives it +1 to its damage roll = 1/4, or 25%... and we’re not even counting the vehicle as hull-down for an additional 1/2 chance that it shrugs off the hit).

However, it still makes sense to include these in your army because, when it DOES destroy a tank, it will often deal a very large blow to the enemy. Tactically speaking, it has the best chance-to-impact ratio out of your whole army by targeting the enemy’s vehicles. Impact is the tactical blow that losing that unit will cause to your opponent. It cannot be directly measured (destroying that Demolisher in range of your Terminators is a much greater blow than destroying that Demolisher that’s 48” away from anything).

Determining that ratio will largely be determined by you, as a tactical decision governed by your strategy.

In-Focus: Space Marine Tactical Squad

Space Marines are undoubtedly one of the most common armies played in Warhammer 40,000. I would say that, on average, 1/3^rd of all armies you play against will be some form of Space Marine army. However, with the new full-sized codexes for Space Wolves, Blood Angels, Dark Angels, and Black Templars, you could find yourself against a myriad of different types of Space Marines.

Described here though is the regular bread & butter Space Marine Tactical Squad. Every Space Marine army will be fielding at least 1 of these squads (with the exception of Scout armies, but that is truly the exception, and I have never seen one fielded). Even though some armies will have special rules that may modify how this squad functions, there are basic changes that will require that you shift your strategy marginally.

For example, Space Wolf squads will benefit from the Counter-Assault special rule, which take away many of the advantages of assaulting – specifically, the bonus attacks. This means that you cannot count on as many of your troops surviving an assault. Plan accordingly, and this should not be too much of an issue. It’s still better to charge rather than be charged, but it may not be worth it to throw low-initiative troops at them (like a stray, low-model count squad of Orks).

To sum up the Tactical Squad I need only 2 words – “great” and “flexible”. This can describe the Space Marines as a whole, but it’s because their basic troop is the template for almost every model in their army (each one being a minor change from this basic template).

Tactical Marines have a high save (3+), a good toughness (4), and the “They Shall Know No Fear” special rule. These stats alone account for most of their points cost. It means that, no matter what, a Tactical Squad is going to be a threat down to the very last man, and that it’s not going to be any small task getting there. This unit’s survivability means that it can contest objectives even when gravely injured, and can resist the Massacre! result better than most other armies.

Tactical Squads now, under the new 5^th edition codex, are better than ever thanks to the new “Combat Squads” special rule, allowing Space Marines to split up a maxed-out Tactical Squad into 2 squads. When they do so, it’s important to remember that although the squad takes up 1 slot in the Force Organization chart, they will function effectively as two distinct squads.

***Combat Squads, being only 5 models large, can sneakily grab an objective. Even these 3 models can claim and/or contest this objective.***

Tactical Squads (or their Combat Squad) will be designed for a purpose before the game begins. Space Marine players have to choose their special weapons in advance, and this will lock that squad in to a certain role. If they’re armed with a flamer and a Sergeant with a power weapon/fist, then you can be pretty sure that the squad is assigned to move around and engage in assault moves. If they’re armed with a Lascannon, they’re almost certainly anti-tank/monstrous creature.

You’re likely to run into many that carry Missile Launchers. They’re cheap, and can support the army in an anti-tank or anti-infantry manner. They’re not quite as good as the Heavy Bolter for fighting infantry (actually, they’re almost as good if not better in some circumstances), and not quite as good as the Lascannon for tanks, but their flexibility and low-cost really makes them shine.

Of special note is the Squad Sergeant. I like to think of the Sergeant as a special weapon model more than a support model when it comes to Space Marines. Since the Sergeant comes automatically with any squad, the only real difference is how he's armed. Most commonly you'll catch Sergeants with a Pistol and Power Fist, but don't let that fool you into thinking that's all you'll see. Many players will sacrifice the extra attack for a combi-weapon (plasma or flamer). These potent weapons can give the squad a small pump to handle a variety of opponents. Keep your eyes peeled for these combi-weapons, as they often come as a surprised to the unprepared.

The Tactical Squad’s basic armament, the Bolter, is also an incredible weapon – one that well-respected by many players. It has a good strength compared to most other small-arms, good range, rapid fire for close-range, and an AP that means a lot of non-Space Marine armies are going to lose their saves to your basic weapon. That’s quite a punch. Not only that, but Tactical Squads come equipped with Bolt Pistols too! Even though they are not carrying a close combat weapon (CCW), the Pistol is incredibly handy. It allows a Space Marine squad to effectively obtain a 3^rd attack each when charging (1 + 1 for charging + 1 for the pistol shot).

However, Tactical Squads must be cautious when using the pistol. If an enemy is just within reach of a charge, a few pistol shots and a flamer could allow their opponent to remove the first line of troops, preventing the assault. Use this information wisely.

Finally, Tactical Squads also are able to take a myriad of transport options. I’ll cover transports again in the future – but to sum it up quickly, they are allowed a Drop Pod, a light transport, and a heavy transport.

With Combat Squads, the most logical option for me would be to take the heavy transport option – the Razorback. The Razorback is everything the Rhino is, and more, and while carrying a combat-squad, the 6-model maximum restriction is easily overlookable. Remember, having an extra weapon makes the Razorback harder to kill and neutralize as a threat.

The Rhino is the classic Space Marine transport. Rhinos can carry a full Tactical Squad. This is most useful for assault-oriented armies, so if you see a Rhino, you can bet that the Space Marines will try to use this to bring in a large squad of ready Space Marines.

Finally, the Drop Pod is useful, and allows incredible tactical options at the beginning of the game, and does it all for a real bargain in points. However, it is stationary (auto-hit in close combat), and the Tactical Squad will not be able to re-embark to go somewhere else. Drop Pod forces are likely to land right where you don’t want them. If their entire force is embarked in Drop Pods, then prepare for a Drop Pod Assault Force (more on that in another article as well), otherwise, try to keep an eye on where would be a good spot for them to land. Plan your strategy accordingly. One of the biggest mistakes to make is to allow a single Drop-Pod to completely destabilize your army’s momentum. A Drop-Pod and the Tactical Marines within are expensive (close or over 200 points). If you can deal with it without letting it disrupt much of your army, you’re golden.

Strategies, Tactics, and What They Mean.

"Seeing the forest from the trees," "getting the big picture," and "sensing the flow of the game," are all ways that we describe the concept of prioritizing strategy and tactics. However, many players don't see or understand this concept, and many fail to even understand the differences between them

I once saw an article on the internet for Warhammer 40,000 titled “Why tactics are useless in Warhammer,” and I was really stunned that someone would say this. I think what the person was meaning to say is that strategy is useless, since the game requires a strong use of tactics. But even then, I believe that the person was wrong, as there are many strategic components to the game – but most of these decisions are made before the game even begins.

Sun Tzu wrote in the Art of War:

"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."

This is especially true for Warhammer, although the structure is somewhat reversed. It is possible to win a game of Warhammer with tactics alone, but without strategy you’re only half-way to victory. Conversely, having a strategy in Warhammer is great, but without tactics to back you up, you’re doomed to fail.

The reason behind this is simple. In Warhammer, you win any match so long as you wipe your opponent out (a Massacre result) before the game ends. Regardless of any other objective, a wiped-out opponent loses, and you win. I recently won a game this way – a special scenario where only HQ units could score killpoints. At the end, with my HQ that had scored kill-points dead, I had 0 points. However, I had wiped my opponent out. If he had even 1 unit of grots left (who couldn’t even score points), we’d have tied – but since he was wiped out, I won.

So what do I mean by strategy, and what do I mean by tactics?

In marketing, the terms are very rigidly defined. Quickly put, tactics are things you do to improve your business that are short-term (within the span of 1 year). These are things like hiring/firing, discounting old merchandise, and picking out the right Christmas merchandise before the season hits.

Strategies, on the other hand, are things that you do to improve your business that are long-term (span of greater than 1 year). These are things like trying to change customer’s perceptions of your store/brand, modifying the customer experience, or creating an online sales department.

The same concept of strategy and tactics apply in Warhammer, but we’re not dealing with massive time-frames. Tactics are still short-term decisions, and strategies are still long-term.

How short-term, and how long-term though?

Tactics:

Tactics in 40k are the small decisions that you make throughout the game. They are your unit by unit, turn by turn, choices. How far will you move? What will you shoot? Will you assault or not? How will you disembark from your transport? Do you risk immobilizing your vehicle going through the difficult terrain, or risk losing your cover save when the enemy comes into a firing position next turn? These are all examples of tactics.

Tactics are extremely important in Warhammer. If you make the incorrect small decisions, you can’t hope to fulfill your strategy (the basics of which likely are; "win games"). If you’re assaulting Wraithlords with your woefully under-equipped HQ, you’re likely making the wrong tactical decision. But some tactical decisions are more difficult than this. A classic question is when you have to choose to either assault one, two, three, or no units!

This problem occurs more for horde armies than for elite ones (Tyranids, Orks), but can also apply to a mostly unmolested squad of Blood Angels, Howling Banshees, Kroot, or other 8+ model assault squads. The problem that tends to come up is this; you’re close to the enemy’s big bad assault character/unit (Killa Kanz, Wraithlord, Dreadnaught, Demon Prince, etc.). If you stay where you are, you’re likely going to die, if not from the enemy’s firepower, from the inevitable assault. If you assault, though, there’s another assault unit close by, and they can counter-charge you. If you assault, you may even kill off the unit that you’re assault, and then the enemy guns and other assault unit will definitely destroy you. Finally, there’s a third squad close by that you can double-charge and, while not an assault squad, stands to do some major damage to other parts of your army if it gets away.

This is a complicated tactical scenario. No answer seems to be the right one. Assaulting nothing is bad, assaulting one is also bad, and assaulting two enemies means that you’re basically sacrificing your squad. The correct answer will depend a lot on both the rest of you’re army’s position, and on your strategy. It’s one turn, one choice, but that tactical decision could have far-reaching implications.

Strategies:

Then there’s your strategy, which are the long-term decisions that you make, and which can influence your chances at winning not just one game, but in all your games with that army. A strategy can be as small as “In this game I need to capture the objective and then just survive,” to “I’ve collected my army based on the concept of dealing significant ordnance damage to the enemy, and then finishing them off with assault and flamer squads". Strategies are not individual choices, but is a philosophy that helps to direct or view future tactical decisions. You may want to charge the nearest enemy, and that may give you the best damage/loss ratio, but if you know the game's going to end soon you may need to charge that unit that you have no hope of defeating simply to stop them from getting to the objective.

It is nearly impossible not to have a strategy. A strategy can be as simple as “win this game”.

Strategies are merely philosophies that guide the rest of your decisions. It is possible not to play to win. GW employees learn to give intro-games, which are played with the strategy of presenting the game in the most favourable light to that player (players may like the models, the story, the rules, the competition, etc.). If I encounter a new player, I play to teach them the rules – so I might make decisions that, although not correct for the “win this game” strategy, do help the “teach the rules” strategy.

However, having a better defined strategy, or multiple levels of strategy, can greatly benefit you. Some levels are; army choice, army collection, tournament army lists, single-game army lists, size of game, play style, and placing terrain.

The most common time that players decide on strategies is when putting together an army list. Since I see Warhammer as a strategy game, a game that I try to win, I like to collect larger armies. A larger army allows me more strategic decisions when constructing an army list, since I can change my army list from game to game. One game I may use a strategy of lots of models, and another game I may use a strategy of fast vehicles. Making the strategic decision to collect a large army allows me choices for what strategies I will be able to execute later.

Remember these differences, because your understanding of Warhammer 40,000 and how to win it require that you know the difference!